In case you haven't seen it, Hollinger has delved further into sabermetrics (or whatever you would call it for basketball) and has created "VA" (value added, essentially VORP) and "EWA" (estimated wins added, essentially WARP). Basically, he's taken PER and added a minutes per game function in order to better estimate value to a team. PER does not take defense into account, but then again, neither to VORP or WARP, so I'm good with it. (you'll need insider to see these, if you don't have an account, send me a text and I'll send you my info)
So, armed with this new data, he takes another attack at Nash's back-to-back MVP awards. Not surprisingly, Nash was the worst statistically of the top 5 finishers in each of his MVP seasons, lending further credence to the notion that Nash and his MVPs were highly bastioned by PHXs helter-skelter style.
The articles are highly technical, but good reads and lend a framework for the type of analysis I'd like to see us discuss moving forward.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
BTW - if you are not checking www.gordonkeith.com every few days, you are missing out...
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting. I always enjoy reading Hollinger's statistical take but feel that basketball is a much more difficult game to quantify individual contributions as so much is predicated on the actions of teammates, rather than baseball which each AB is a one on one situation. Either way, it always makes for great conversation.
ReplyDeleteAlso, in case you hadn't noticed the Mavs have moved up to #8 in his Power Rankings, just one spot below Denver...they were sitting around 12-14 for most of the season.
Just something I am going to throw out there, but didn't think it merited a full post:
The Mavericks Rule of 3:
2000-2001 - 2nd Rd loss
2001-2002 - 2nd Rd loss
2002-2003 - Western Conference Finals
2003-2004 - 1st Rd loss
2004-2005 - 2nd Rd loss
2005-2006 - NBA Finals
2006-2007 - 1st Rd loss
2007-2008 - 1st Rd loss
2008-2009 - ???
If the Mavs follow the pattern, we could be set up for something special. No real basis here, but something to think about.
Nice pull Shiff - though I don't put much faith in it.
ReplyDelete