Phoenix's loss to Dallas Tuesday night was a killer, cutting the Suns' Playoff Odds nearly in half. On the other hand, some may wonder how the Suns' odds can stand at 28.8 percent despite being five games down for the eighth spot in the West with only 18 left to play. So I'll remind you once again that after Wednesday's game against Cleveland, the Suns' schedule is cake-ola the rest of the way.
Clearly, the Suns would have to win the rematch in Dallas on April 5 -- which could cut the margin to a still-daunting four games. But if they do that, they project to go 11-6 in the other 17 games, while the Mavs' projected record is 8-9. That makes up three of the four games; even a one-game deviation from this projection would put Phoenix in the playoffs, as they'll almost certainly own the conference record tiebreaker.
Phoenix also maintains a sliver of a chance of passing Portland or Denver, though both teams would have to collapse for that to happen. Again, tiebreaks would be key -- the Suns have one game left against each team, and in each case would gain both a game and the tiebreaker edge with a win.
Personally, the way the Mavs are playing these last couple of games I think it's more likely the Suns pass someone else down the stretch. I say Mavs end up with 6th seed.
ReplyDeleteI am not ruling out any seed between 4 and 9. I would bet at this point the probability of them getting a 4 seed and ending with the 9 seed is pretty close (standings wise they are closer to the 4). JB is prob right, most likely the Mavs end up in the 5-8 range, with 5-6 being preferable.
ReplyDeleteWell, let's not start clamoring for home court just yet...I'm focusing on GS right now.
ReplyDeleteThough if they can go 10-7, which is definitely doable, we can have ourselves another 50 win season.
Trust, me home court is far from being in the bag. It would be nice to keep the 50 win season streak going, and I think its gonna take that to finish higher than 8th. My guess is that the 8 seed will have 48-49 wins, and the 3-7 seeds will fall between 56 and 50 wins. No statistical basis for this claim, just a hunch.
ReplyDeleteCorby is running through some road records v. the top West teams...other than the Lakers (8-4), Mavs have one of the better records (5-9). One of the teams (I didn't catch which one, is 1-11). Also note that the Mavs have 8 out of the last 12 at home.
ReplyDeleteHe said Utah is 0-9 and Portland is 1-11. Also noted is that the Mavs have played more road games against the top Western teams than any other team
ReplyDeletePhoenix loss last night was big. Almost assured of a playoff spot now. If you saw Phoenix at the end they looked like they knew it was over.
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